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Since 2000: Republican 2000: Bush (nominee) 2004: Bush (nominee - he ran unopposed for the nomination) 2008: Huckabee (McCain was nominee - he came in fourth in Iowa) 2012: Santorum (Romney was nominee - he came in second in Iowa) 2016: Cruz (Trump was nominee - he came in second in iowa) Democrats 2000: Gore (nominee) 2004: Kerry (nominee) 2008: Obama (nominee) 2012: Obama (nominee - he ran unopposed for the nomination) 2016: Clinton (nominee) For Republicans, they got two out of five right, but one of those was Bush running without an opponent, so it probably shouldn't be counted. Essentially it got 1 out of 4 right, and at the time it got the first one right most people thought they were out of their minds and that opponent was laughable. For Democrats Iowa seems almost prescient, getting four out of four correct (Obama ran against no one once). I think there is more correlation here than causation. Quote:
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