Prediction Forum Rules

[Arbiter]

We might keep score some day. We have no idea how to go about doing that currently though, so no scores are currently being kept.

If you have ideas or comments for this forum, please post them in the feedback forum. Please only post predictions in the prediction forum.


1. Make one and only one prediction per thread.

2. Not all predictions will be accepted. Some are so painfully obvious that they don't count as predictions. "The sun will rise tomorrow" does not count as any amount of prediction. The odds of a prediction resolving untrue must be at least half.

3. If you make a prediction that is denied, a response explaining why it was denied will be left. Yes, you can argue for your cause if you dispute the findings. Be reasonable.

4. If your prediction is approved, your thread will be locked so that it cannot be edited. When the prediction is resolved, we will post to the thread indicating how it was resolved.

5. Predictions are not restricted to politics. You can predict sports outcomes if you like for example.



There are sites you can use to substantiate that you're making a prediction that's contrary to popular wisdom. Other sites may also be credible sources and this list is not all inclusive. There is no assurance that other sites will be approved, though.

It's a little bit subjective that way, and unfortunately that's unavoidable. By using our recommended sites and showing that they think your prediction is not the most probable outcome, your prediction is more likely to be accepted.

Recommended sites:

538
270 to Win
Predict It
Real Clear Politics