Civil War?

[Dub]

Here's an interesting topic.

Kitsune9tails made a thread, and in it was this comment:

Originally Posted by Kitsune9tails

I have spoken with many people who say that a Civil War is coming after the next election. Some seem to think that if Trump loses, the Right will rise up to keep him in office. Others seem to believe that if Trump wins, the Left will rise up to unseat him.

It got me to thinking about the issue.

I've heard it said a lot, especially recently. I've seen more articles on it too.

There's this article about it, which is one of many and it's only a month old.

The article cites a poll from Georgetown University that says:

A majority of Americans think political, racial, and class divisions are worsening, and that the average voter believes the United States is two-thirds of the way to the edge of a civil war.

It also pointed out President Trump's own comments:

“#CivilWar2” trended on Twitter in September after Trump quoted a pastor in a Twitter post saying it would “cause a Civil War like fracture” in the United States if he were removed from office.

And in response to it, the article states, the Oathkeepers of Vanilla Isis Yeehawd fame at Malheur National Wildlife Refuge said to their members:

“This is the truth. This is where we are. We ARE on the verge of a HOT civil war. Like in 1859.”

There's no doubt that talk of another civil war has been going on for a long time.

I feel the amount of conversation about it is increasing.

Do any of you feel that way? If so, why, and what's making that happen?

Is a civil war a realistic possibility?

How could it be prevented?

Which side would you be on, and why?

How would it likely end?

[Kitsune9tails]

In my experience, the people who are talking about a Civil War are not talking about a Civil War. They are talking about domestic terrorism.

In order to have a Civil War, you would need at least 20% of the US Military on your side. If you actually intend to win, you have to have at least 60% of the Navy on your side.

This is simply because the Navy can wipe out any city on Earth that is taken by a resistance force with nuclear power, with no chance of said city retaliating. They can do this for YEARS with only stops to resupply food anywhere in the world.

You're going to start a civil war? Where are your airplanes, tanks and armed drones? What are you going to do about the navy? What are you going to do about drone swarms? What are you going to do about satellites?

Now maybe a large enough well organized militia, with the cooperation of the local police, might be able to take a small town and hold it, with the threat of ending the lives of locals if the authorities intervene, but again, that's domestic terrorism, not war. Maybe that would even go viral and lead to the taking of a handful of towns, but you are not going to take Atlanta, let alone DC.

Maybe Texas and Alabama and a few states will even vote to secede from the Union (again), but IMHO all that would do is trigger a mass exodus from their cities, which would ruin them economically.

All of the people that I have questioned about this fall into a few camps:

1) *If Trump is reelected, the Leftists will try to remove him from office via military coup.* These folks apparently think that Trump Supporters will hear this on the news and then somehow teleport into the oval office and fend off the 'bad guys'. Either that or they think millions of Trump supporters will somehow convoy up the highways to DC without being noticed and lay siege until the Lefties are all killed or something.

2) *If Trump is removed from office, whether by losing the election or Impeachment, his Supporters will prevent him from leaving office by military action." These are similar to the above, but now the people using illegal force are the 'good guys'. Again, this somehow involves millions of Trump supporters somehow occupying DC until all of the Lefties go away.

3) *If Trump is reelected, the Lefties will resort to domestic terrorism, and we better be ready.* These guys seem harmless to me.

4) *If Trump is removed, we will have to shoot Lefties until he is reinstated to placate us.* IMHO, these are the dangerous guys. These are the domestic terrorists waiting for an excuse.

A minority of them actually think you can just murder people until the law and the military just give up and make your choice President, because that is obviously easier and better than doing the jobs they were hired and trained for and hunting down criminals and terrorists.

The more dangerous ones are the ones that just want to lash out at society and are waiting for a pretense that doesn't make them evil in their own minds. They are essentially suicidal, because they don't see any acceptable prospects for their lives. Some of these people are already shooting up churches and schools, or wearing robes and pointy hats. They aspire to be Tim McVeigh or David Koresh.

I can only hope that the authorities are already looking for these guys, that they have already infiltrated their organizations and are already monitoring their communications. Which frightens me, because it's like actually hoping that Big Brother is watching.

[Publius]

I don't think a civil war requires the military to engage. Our law enforcement offices are all militarized anyway. I don't think there'd be a need for military intervention. That doesn't mean it wouldn't be utilized unnecessarily, but I don't think it would be needed.

All of the people that I have questioned about this fall into a few camps:

How many people is that?

Groups 1 and 2 of your crazy train seem to largely overlap. I've heard (or read) some of these people too. I also often wonder how many Russian robots are out there pretending (quite well) to be one of these people, but whose only role is to exacerbate and inflame tensions.

Since groups (and I see this on the left as well, but I see it much more on the right) don't seem to be smart enough or willing enough to stop using vitriol, false narratives, lies and attacks in their discourse, it works suprisingly well when other countries come and try to stir up trouble using robots. What does that tell us when the robot spammers seem to be identical in substance and intellect to the people that post their hate filled comments all over the Internet?

3) *If Trump is reelected, the Lefties will resort to domestic terrorism, and we better be ready.* These guys seem harmless to me.

Not to me. I think this group, even though not an active and current threat, are pretty easy to mobilize. Essentially this is what happened at Malheur if I understand correctly. A bunch of these harmless dystopian prepper groups finally found a cause that a couple dozen of them got mobilized by.

I think these people are dangerous. They're land mines; not actively exploding, but pretty easy to set off.

4) *If Trump is removed, we will have to shoot Lefties until he is reinstated to placate us.* IMHO, these are the dangerous guys. These are the domestic terrorists waiting for an excuse.

Agreed.

A minority of them actually think you can just murder people until the law and the military just give up and make your choice President, because that is obviously easier and better than doing the jobs they were hired and trained for and hunting down criminals and terrorists.

I think they talk a lot, but I don't think very many of them mean it. The problem is that their kids, friends, or whomever else they are talking to might believe them and start being true believers themselves. It is entirely possible for someone who knows they are full of crap to talk others into genuinely believing in whatever fiction they create. See notes on L. Ron Hubbard or Joseph Smith for details.

As more people buy in to these beliefs, and they become more bold, they also become more dangerous.

The more dangerous ones are the ones that ... aspire to be Tim McVeigh or David Koresh.

Some of those people are mentally ill. Some of those people are in group 3 or 4 of your post though, and just haven't been motivated yet.

I can only hope that the authorities are already looking for these guys, that they have already infiltrated their organizations and are already monitoring their communications. Which frightens me, because it's like actually hoping that Big Brother is watching.

We can hope.

[Kitsune9tails]

How many people is that?

Less than a dozen.

What does that tell us when the robot spammers seem to be identical in substance and intellect to the people that post their hate filled comments all over the Internet?

I think I will take the robots over the "zombies"? At least for now...

By the way, be careful: I get a lot of Facebook friend requests from women pretty enough to be models but who have very sparse profiles and short posting histories these days. The bots are upgrading their cuteness.